Does concentration of social housing influence house prices? Evidence from New Zealand

Abstract

Purpose Housing affordability in New Zealand is placing significant pressure on the country’s social housing sector with increased demand for public sector accommodation. A common belief suggests that social housing has a negative effect on nearby residential property values. This study aims to develop proximity and concentration measures of social housing to determine if their spatial distribution affects property values. Design/methodology/approach Using over 32,000 residential sales transactions from Auckland (New Zealand) during a three-year period (2014–2016), this study applies standard hedonic OLS framework with the addition of spatial autoregressive model and spatiotemporal autoregressive model to test if proximity and concentration of social housing influence residential property values. Findings The research found that private houses that share boundaries with public housing are discounted by 1.7%–3.3% depending on the socio-economic status of the submarket. The authors find that wealthier submarkets are better equipped to absorbing negative externalities attached to social housing. Proximity measures tend to peak at 250 m, with houses discounted up to 5% within that distance. Concentration levels of social housing had a greater influence on the private residential market. At low levels of concentration, houses in areas of high and low socio-economic levels were discounted by approximately 6.5%. The discount does not remain uniform and the gap between the two areas is apparent at medium and high concentration levels. The negative effect was the highest − 23% – in the neighbourhoods that were socially and economically deprived. Originality/value The study’s findings can assist policymakers in informing strategies on the future social housing initiatives. The findings suggest that a dispersed development strategy that incorporates a balanced mix of tenure and socio-economic groups should be preferred over a high-density social housing concentrated in already deprived neighbourhoods.