The impacts of capital inflows on bank lending in the ASEAN-6 countries

Abstract

PurposeThe authors investigate the impacts of international capital inflows on bank lending in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations-6 (ASEAN-6) countries on the dynamics of both bank loan volumes and credit risk-taking. The authors further explore the heterogenous impacts of different components of the foreign capital. As a robustness check, the authors also examine the role of crisis periods and agency problem on the relationship between international capital inflows and bank lending.Design/methodology/approachThe authors explore the impacts of international capital inflows on bank lending in the ASEAN-6 countries, including Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines, Singapore and Vietnam. The authors employ quarterly data from 2005Q1 to 2021Q2 from 45 commercial banks in the ASEAN-6 countries. The article uses bank-fixed and time-fixed effects in the panel dataset to account for any unobserved heterogeneity.FindingsThe authors find that capital inflows to the ASEAN-6 countries are associated with higher bank loan growth and lower loan loss provisions to net interest income ratios. Moreover, the positive relationships between capital inflows to the bank loan growth and credit risk-taking are mainly driven by the dynamics in foreign direct investments (FDIs) and other inflow (OI) components. Contrary to the global financial crisis (GFC), the authors note that the mediating role of capital inflows on bank lending is of particular importance in the COVID-19 pandemic.Research limitations/implicationsThis study has some limitations that provide vendors for future research. First, while the authors focus on the impact of capital inflows on bank-level lending activities, future research can also explore the role of foreign capital on bank efficiency and financial stability. Second, although foreign capital fluctuates the most during crisis periods, the movement of capital inflows is also sensitive to other periods of heightened global uncertainty. Thus, rather than focus on the behavior of foreign capital during crisis periods, future research can examine and explore the impacts of capital inflows in different periods of “stop” and “surge” for sudden contraction and boom in capital inflows to the ASEAN-6 countries.Originality/valueFirst, the authors provide a comprehensive analysis of international capital inflows' impact on bank lending in the ASEAN region on both bank loan volumes and credit risk-taking. Second, the authors provide evidence of the impact of different forms of foreign capital on the bank lending. Third, the authors investigate the heterogeneous impact of foreign capital on crisis periods and bank sizes, which the authors emphasize the unusual characteristics of the COVID-19 crisis compared with the GFC.