Examining the trade-led Kuznets hypothesis for emerging economies: a multivariate framework

Abstract

PurposeThe present study aims to investigate the non-linear relationship between trade and income inequality to address goal 10 of sustainable development goals (SDGs) using the Kuznets Curve (KC) framework for major emerging countries during 1991–2020.Design/methodology/approachFor this purpose, recent econometric techniques, such as Common Correlated Effect (CCE) and Dynamic Common Correlated Effect (DCCE) estimators have been employed to deal with the cross-section dependence (CD) that arises in panel data, while the robustness of the study is checked through Driscoll–Kraay standard errors method.FindingsThe empirical results of the study confirm the existence of inverted “U-shaped” relationship between trade and income inequality suggesting evidence for the trade-led KC in the panel of emerging countries. Along with the non-linear model, the threshold value is estimated to be between 3.5 and 4% of gross domestic product (GDP).Research limitations/implicationsThe authors' findings support that trade contributes significantly toward reducing income inequality and helps in achieving goal 10 of SDGs. Hence, trade policies appear to be more egalitarian. The results widen the scope for further research and provide insights for regulators and policymakers in modeling trade policies and changing the status quo trade policy framework accordingly.Originality/valueThe present study is a pioneering attempt to examine the non-linear relationship between trade and income inequality under the KC framework in light of the Agenda 2030 for sustainable development. The study also considers other explanatory factors that have an impact on income inequality. Furthermore, the study considers other explanatory factors that have an impact on income inequality, and the attempt to estimate the threshold value for the trade-led KC is novel and interesting.