Remittances and homicides in Jamaica

Abstract

Purpose It has been suggested that homicides in Jamaica are partly driven by conflicts among criminals over funds coming from international lottery scams; most of these funds are channeled into the country via remittances. This study aims to determine the empirical relationship between remittances and homicides in Jamaica over the period 1985–2019. Design/methodology/approach The authors apply an error correction modelling framework while accounting for indicators of changes in socioeconomic conditions. Findings There are two. First, the authors find from impulse response analysis of the long-run dynamics that an increase in remittances is associated with an increase in homicides, and vice versa. Second, the authors find that there is bidirectional Granger causality between remittances and homicides in the short run. Social implications Two important implications are that policies should be strengthened to channel remittances to productive and legal investment opportunities and that greater efforts may be needed to stem the flow of funds coming from international lottery scamming and other illegal activities. Originality/value This is the first study that examines the dynamic relationship between remittances and homicides in Jamaica from a robust statistical perspective.