Author:
Yin Peng,Dou Guowei,Lin Xudong,Liu Liangliang
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to solve the problem of low accuracy in new product demand forecasting caused by the absence of historical data and inadequate consideration of influencing factors.
Design/methodology/approach
A hybrid new product demand forecasting model combining clustering analysis and deep learning is proposed. Based on the product similarity measurement, the weight of product similarity attributes is realized by using the method of fuzzy clustering-rough set, which provides a basis for the acquisition and collation of historical sales data of similar products and the determination of product similarity. Then the prediction error of Bass model is adjusted based on similarity through a long short-term memory neural network model, where the influencing factors such as product differentiation, seasonality and sales time on demand forecasting are embedded. An empirical example is given to verify the validity and feasibility of the model.
Findings
The results emphasize the importance of considering short-term impacts when forecasting new product demand. The authors show that useful information can be mined from similar products in demand forecasting, where the seasonality, product selling cycles and sales dependencies have significant impacts on the new product demand. In addition, they find that even in the peak season of demand, if the selling period has nearly passed the growth cycle, the Bass model may overestimate the product demand, which may mislead the operational decisions if it is ignored.
Originality/value
This study is valuable for showing that with the incorporation of the evaluation method on product similarity, the forecasting model proposed in this paper achieves a higher accuracy in forecasting new product sales.
Subject
Computer Science (miscellaneous),Social Sciences (miscellaneous),Theoretical Computer Science,Control and Systems Engineering,Engineering (miscellaneous)
Reference31 articles.
1. An epsilon constraint method for selecting indicators for use in neural networks for stock market forecasting;INFOR: Information Systems and Operational Research,2014
2. Characterization of demand for short life-cycle technology products;Annals of Operations Research,2010
3. A new product growth for model consumer durables;Management Science,1969
4. Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity;Journal of Econometrics,1986
Cited by
12 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献