Quantitative estimation of the impact of climate change on residential electricity demand for the city of Greater Accra, Ghana

Abstract

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of temperature on residential electricity demand in the city of Greater Accra, Ghana. It is believed that the increasing trend of temperatures may significantly affect people’s lives and demand for electricity from the national grid. Given the recurrent electricity crisis in Ghana, this study will investigate both the current and future residential energy demands in the light of temperature fluctuations. This will inform future power generation using renewable energy resources mix to find a sustainable solution to the recurrent energy demand challenges in Ghana. This study will help the Government of Ghana to better understand the temperature dependence of residential energy demand, which in turn will help in developing behavioral modification programs aimed at reducing energy consumption. Monthly data for the temperature and residential electricity consumption for Greater Accra Region from January 2007 to December 2018 obtained from the Ghana Meteorological Service (GMS) and Ghana Grid Company (Gridco), respectively, are used for the analysis. Design/methodology/approach This study used monthly time series data from 2007 to 2018. Data on monthly electricity demand and temperature are obtained from the Ghana Grid Company and GMS. The theoretical framework for residential electricity consumption, the log-linear demand equation and time series regression approaches was used for this study. To demonstrate certain desirable properties and to produce good estimators in this study, an analysis technique of ordinary least squares measurement was also applied. Findings This study showed an impact on residential electricity requirements in the selected regions of Greater Accra owing to temperature change. The analysis suggests a substantial positive response to an increase in temperature demand for residential electricity and thus indicates a growth of the region’s demand for electricity in the future because of temperature changes. As this analysis projects, the growth in the electricity demand seems too small for concern, perhaps because of the incoherence of the mechanisms used to regulate the temperature by the residents. However, two points should be considered when drawing any conclusions even in the case of Greater Accra alone. First, the growth in the demand for electricity shown in the present study is the growth of demand due only to increasing temperatures that do not consider changes in all the other factors driving the growth of demand. The electricity demand will in the future increase beyond what is induced by temperature, due to increasing demand, population and mechanization and other socioeconomic factors. Second, power consumption understated genuine electricity demand, owing to the massive shedding of loads (Dumsor) which occurred in Ghana from 2012 to 2015 in the analysis period that also applies in the Greater Accra region. Given both of these factors, the growth in demand for electricity is set to increase in response to climate change, which draws on the authorities to prepare more critically on capacity building which loads balancing. The results also revealed that monthly total residential electricity consumption, particularly the monthly peak electricity consumption in the city of Accra is highly sensitive to temperature. Therefore, the rise in temperature under different climate change scenarios would have a high impact on residential electricity consumption. This study reveals that the monthly total residential electricity demand in Greater Accra will increase by up to 3.1%. Research limitations/implications The research data was largely restricted to only one region in Ghana because of the inconsistencies in the data from the other regions. The only climate variable use was temperature because it was proven in the literature that it was the most dominant variable that affects electricity demand, so it was not out of place to use only this variable. The research, however, can be extended to capture the entire regions of the country if sponsorship and accurate data can be obtained. Practical implications The government as the policy and law-making authority has to play the most influential role to ensure adaptation at all levels toward the impact of climate change for residential consumers. It is the main responsibility of the government to arrange enough supports to help residential consumers adapt to climate change and try to make consumers self-sufficient by modification of certain behaviors rather than supply dependent. Government bodies need to carefully define their climate adaptation supports and incentive programs to influence residential-level consumption practices and demand management. Here, energy policies and investments need to be more strategic. The most critical problem is to identify the appropriate adaptation policies that favor the most vulnerable sectors such as the residential sector. Social implications To evaluate both mitigation and adaptation policies, it is important to estimate the effect of climate change on energy usage around the world. Existing empirical figures, however, are concentrated in Western nations, especially the USA. To predict how electricity usage will shift in the city of Greater Accra, Ghana, the authors used regular household electricity consumption data. Originality/value The motivation for this paper and in particular the empirical analysis for Ghana is originality for the literature. This paper demonstrates an adequate understanding of the relevant literature in modern times.