Brazil: monetary policy and the neutral interest rate

Author:

da Silva Cleomar Gomes,de Araújo Rafael Cavalcanti

Abstract

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze the conduct of monetary policy in Brazil and estimate the country’s neutral real interest rate. Design/methodology/approach The authors make use of a state-space macroeconomic model representation. Findings The period of analysis goes from 2003 up to the end of 2013 and the results show that the country’s natural rate of interest was around 4.2 percent in December 2013. Originality/value One of the main differences of this work is the inclusion of variables such as the real exchange rate and world interest rate. This is important because these variables play an important role in the definition of the interest rate and, consequently, in the definition of the neutral interest rate.

Publisher

Emerald

Subject

General Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Reference51 articles.

1. Amato, J.D. (2005), “The role of the natural rate of interest in monetary policy”, Working Paper No. 171, Bank for International Settlements (BIS), Basel, March.

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3. Banco Central do Brasil (2012), “Pesquisa sobre Política Monetária”, available at: www.bcb.gov br/Pre/ASIMP/bcimprensa/3416-Pesquisa%20Pol%C3%ADtica%20Monet%C3%A1ria.pdf (accessed March 1, 2013).

4. The natural rate of interest in Brazil between 1999 and 2005;Revista Brasileira de Economia,2009

5. Basdevant, O., Björksten, N. and Karagedikli, Ö. (2004), “Estimating a time varying neutral real interest rate for New Zealand”, Discussion Paper No. DP2004/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Wellington.

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