Valuation of short-lived firms following waves of new listings

Abstract

PurposeThe survival rate of newly listed firms is low, and there is evidence of a surge of poorly performing new listed firms leading up to the crash of the dot.com bubble. The author investigates this phenomenon and analyzes investors' ability to understand the quality of accounting information and to adjust their expectations.Design/methodology/approachThe author employs the dividend discount model in conjunction with clean surplus accounting discussed by Ohlson (1995) to compare the value relevance of earnings and research and development (R&D) expenditures for short and longer listed National Association of Security Dealer Automated Quotations (NASDAQ) firms between 1980 and 2014. The author also uses univariate tests and logistic regression to analyze both recently listed and short-listed firms. In this analysis, the author compares the differences in investors' expectations for the first five years for both types of firms.FindingsThe author provides convincing evidence that markets clearly placed lower valuation weights on accounting earnings and R&D expenditures for short-listed firms on NASDAQ. Market participants originally had high expectations for these ventures. But, they gradually understood the lower quality of accounting information and adjusted their expectations downward.Originality/valueThe author’s results show that optimistic expectations along with easy equity financing created a surge of new listings. My analysis of the interplay between the quality of accounting information and investors' expectations indicates a negative spillover effect where investors are overoptimistic about firms that rode on waves of new listings backed by liberal financing. The author shows that analysis of Tobin's Q and negative earnings can separate ill-prepared from longer-listed firms.