Monetary policy, macroeconomic uncertainty and corporate liquid asset demand: a firm-level analysis for India

Abstract

PurposeThe study examines how the liquid assets holdings among non-financial Indian firms vary due to tightening monetary policy and increasing macroeconomic uncertainty.Design/methodology/approachThe authors analyze 5,640 firms for the period 2011–2021. The authors first estimate India’s monetary policy shocks by decomposing the exogenous shocks from the systematic component of monetary policy changes. The authors then examine the effects of the estimated monetary policy shocks and a range of macroeconomic and policy uncertainty indicators on companies’ cash and bank balances to asset ratios using two-step system generalized method of moments (GMM) estimators.FindingsThe authors find that monetary policy shocks cause the cross-sectional variances for the firms’ liquidity holdings to increase. In anticipation of macroeconomic volatility, companies respond to these shocks after taking into account all the firm-level information to minimize the opportunity costs of holding extra cash or too few cash balances that can hamper firms’ operations. Furthermore, compared to other shocks, the contribution of inflation-induced shocks is predicted to be the largest in the cross-sectional deviation of the firm’s cash holdings. The authors also find that low-growth, older and financially constrained firms observe lesser heterogeneity in their cash holdings as they tend to hold cash as a precautionary buffer.Originality/valueThe authors’ approach to the analysis is unique in many ways. To address potential transmission bias, the authors use nowcasts and forecasts of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth and inflation to generate a series of exogenous monetary policy shocks for identifying unanticipated changes in short-term interest rates. Subsequently, the authors estimate how these shocks affect the cross-sectional deviation of liquid assets. For estimating the effects of macroeconomic uncertainty on corporate cash demand, the authors utilize a range of proxies for uncertainty. Unlike previous attempts, the authors offer evidence for a developing and fast-emerging economy.