The dependency between returns from direct real estate and returns from real estate shares

Abstract

Despite improvements in certain countries in recent years, the provision of performance information on the direct real estate market still suffers from a lack of timeliness and reliability. The latter problem is particularly an issue for higher‐frequency data provision. This paper investigates whether there is information from the indirect market that might be useful in helping us understand better the direct real estate market. Direct real estate indices do not measure the performance of underlying transactions prices properly because they are based on valuations – and therefore may be subject to valuation smoothing. Indirect real estate indices do not properly measure the value investors put on the underlying assets of real estate companies because real estate companies are geared. Compares appropriately adjusted indices, and shows that there is information in indirect index returns that can usefully help us understand the performance of the direct market and an index is produced of de‐geared monthly real estate share returns for the UK.