Scenario analysis for commercial Internet content delivery

Abstract

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to identify and analyze the key uncertainties and to construct alternative future scenarios for Internet content delivery. The relative positions and roles of different actors and content delivery technologies in each scenario are then discussed. As traffic volume rapidly grows, the current Internet architecture faces scalability issues. To meet the demand, technical solutions utilizing caching and name-based routing are developed. Design/methodology/approach – This work followed a scenario planning process, and two workshops were organized for identifying the key trends and uncertainties. Industry architecture notation was used to systematically illustrate and compare the constructed scenarios. Findings – Of the 94 forces identified, the revenue model and Internet service provider's (ISP’s) role in content provision were singled out as the two most important uncertainties, upon which four scenarios were constructed. In-network caching technologies are strong candidates in ISP-dominated scenarios. Content delivery networks are more likely outcomes in scenarios, where content providers’ role is significant. Research limitations/implications – The paper focuses on qualitative analysis of scenarios. Utilizing, for instance, system dynamics to model interdependencies between the trends and uncertainties could provide a path toward quantitative analysis. Originality/value – The paper increases understanding of relative positions and roles of different actors and technologies in possible future scenarios. The findings are important, especially for ISPs, content providers and technology vendors. The scenarios can be used to identify desirable futures and strategies to achieve them and to make informed choices in technology design to meet the demands of key actors.