An Application of the Box‐Jenkins Methodology to Capital Budgeting

Abstract

The authors derive the probability distribution of the net present value of a project under the quite general assumption that the cash flows follow either an autoregressive moving average process or an integrated autoregressive process. Examples are presented which serve to both illustrate the application of the results as well as to underscore how to use utility functions for decision making, how to determine a project's Internal Rate of Return, and the dynamic resolution of uncertainty.