Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to explore how Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) could have enhanced understanding of the risks involved in the financial strategy for revitalization of Rio de Janeiro’s central city based on the capture of value generated by government interventions.
Design/methodology/approach
The study first describes the process involved in developing the financial strategy and model without MCS. Then, it shows how the MCS could have been integrated into this process and evaluates its potential impacts on the quality of risk analysis.
Findings
If MCS is fully integrated into the decision-making process, it can serve as a heuristic tool that helps team members to better understand risks by generating forecasts of land value and other variables as a probability distributions. By showing the variance of the forecasted variable, MCS integrates elements of modern risk analysis into financial model development in a cost-effective manner.
Research limitations/implications
MCS covers only the risks associated with the variables in the financial model. Events that seem extremely unlikely (i.e. “black swans”) can occur and must be assessed separately.
Practical implications
MCS can help analysts to understand the financial risks of large-scale development projects involving value capture, even in the prefeasibility stage.
Social implications
By facilitating value capture, MCS could help close the financing gap for sustainable urban development and subsidies for lower income families.
Originality/value
The study “retrofits” MCS on a successfully completed financial prefeasibility study to assess its usefulness as a heuristic tool.
Subject
General Economics, Econometrics and Finance,Finance,General Business, Management and Accounting,General Economics, Econometrics and Finance,Finance,General Business, Management and Accounting
Cited by
4 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献