The nexus of electricity access, population growth, economic growth in Pakistan and projection through 2040

Abstract

Purpose The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between electricity access, population growth and economic growth in Pakistan. Design/methodology/approach Phillips–Perron unit root test was applied to check the stationarity of the variables and an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to co-integration was used to investigate the causality link between the study variables. Finally, a projection method was applied to check the future trend of the variables. Findings The study results show the long-term connections among the variables; further, the results illustrate that the electricity access to the urban population and the urban population growth has a significant impact on the economic growth, while the electricity access to the rural population and the rural population growth has a negative impact on the economic growth in Pakistan. Research limitations/implications The electricity sector needs further attention from the Government of Pakistan to boost the production from different energy sources, such as oil, gas, solar, nuclear and hydropower to be able to fulfill the country’s growing demand. Originality/value By using the ARDL bounds testing approach to co-integration, this study addressed the literature gap regarding electricity access, population growth and economic growth in Pakistan.