The moderating role of CEO overconfidence on debt maturity decisions: evidence from the MENA region

Abstract

Purpose This study aims to analyze how cultural variations impact the relationship between long-term debt use and managerial overconfidence. Investigate into how the relationship between growth prospects and the utilization of long-term debt is moderated by managerial overconfidence. In addition, the research explores the moderating effect of managerial overconfidence on cash flow levels. Design/methodology/approach The study used long-term debt as the dependent variable and used generalized method of moments–instrumental variables regression analysis to examine data from 356 firms across 11 Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries and 5 industries between 2013 and 2021. Findings CEO overconfidence moderately boosts the link between long-term debt maturity and growth potential, particularly for firms with limited internal funding. Cultural factors, such as masculinity and uncertainty avoidance, play a significant role in moderating the relationship between managerial overconfidence and debt maturity choices. Practical implications To understand the impact of managerial overconfidence on a company’s debt maturity decision, it is essential for boards and shareholders to consider and monitor the CEO’s behavioral traits, particularly for growing companies. Regulators and policymakers must also be wary of the risk of internal control weakening due to overconfident managers, especially in MENA markets. Originality/value The authors’ contribution to the literature lies in exploring how managerial overconfidence moderates the agency conflict between shareholders and debtholders in MENA region firms, which has received minimal attention in previous studies. This study expands the knowledge of the impact of managerial overconfidence on emerging economies and provides evidence that national culture plays a vital role in determining debt financing decisions.