Earnings persistence and predictability within the emerging economy of Georgia

Abstract

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to provide the first empirical assessment of the persistence and predictability of earnings within the Georgian private sector entities. Design/methodology/approach The sample comprises of all the Georgian private sector entities who, according to the new Law of Georgia on Accounting, Reporting and Auditing (2016), had to submit their audited financial statements by 1 October 2018. Financial data has been officially withdrawn from the Ministry of Finance of Georgia and the descriptive data has been obtained by the use of Link Klipper and ScrapeStorm tools through the official “Reportal” website. The final sample consists of 450 large Georgian private sector entities. The study uses a simple, one-year-lagged earnings auto-regression to detect the persistence and predictability within the next series of earnings. A weighted least square method has been used as a statistical procedure. Findings The results reveal that current earnings persist within the next year’s series of earnings at less than 25%, while the reliance on current year’s earnings enables us to predict the next year’s earnings only with a chance of 20%. Further analysis has witnessed that cash flows from operations persist at less than 40% and are able of predicting the next year’s cash flows at below 35%. Overall, the properties of earnings and cash flows within the private sector of Georgia are of relatively poor quality, with the latter demonstrating higher properties compared to earnings. Practical implications The general finding on a relatively low property of earnings raises potential investors and creditors’ awareness on the valuation-usefulness of provided financial information within the private sector of Georgia. The fact that earnings are significantly less persistent and predictable compared to cash flows from operations, hints on accruals’ problematic functioning. The results presented in this paper should be of interest to a local regulator (SARAS), charged with the responsibility of successfully running a currently ongoing accounting reform of Georgia. Originality/value This is the first study that examines the persistence and predictability of earnings and cash flows from operations among the private sector entities of Georgia.