Measuring technological uncertainty and technological complexity: scale development and an assessment of reliability and validity

Abstract

Purpose Technological uncertainty and technological complexity are the two dominant characteristics of new product development (NPD) projects that have a negative influence on NPD performance, relying on a strong theoretical argumentation based on organizational information processing theory. The purpose of this study is the development of reliable and valid scales for the measurement of technological uncertainty and technological complexity, especially in the context of the discontinuous technological change of digitization. Design/methodology/approach This study uses material from 44 in-depth interviews, which has been transferred into a questionnaire, and survey data from 166 respondents from the German automotive industry in charge of the development and production of electric and electronic technologies (including software). In this context, exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses are used to test the developed scales for reliability and validity. Findings In this context, it can be stated that the developed scales affirm reliability and validity sufficiently. Interestingly, novelty, regarded as key item for measuring technological uncertainty, has to be dropped, as the factor loadings are under the cut-off of 0.40. Moreover, resulting items for measuring technological uncertainty and technological complexity do not deviate significantly from those discussed in previous study before the discontinuous technological change of digitization occurred. Originality/value This paper provides value for the discussion on how to measure technological uncertainty and technological complexity, especially in times of radical technological changes.