Fuzzy Bayesian based bow-tie risk assessment of runway overrun: a method for airline flight operations

Abstract

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to improve risk assessment processes in airline flight operations by introducing a dynamic risk assessment method. Design/methodology/approach Fuzzy logic and Bayesian network are used together to form a dynamic structure in the analysis. One of the most challenging factors of the analyses in aviation is to get quantitative data. In this study, the fuzzy data quantification technique is used to perform dynamic risk assessment. Dynamic structure in the analysis is obtained by transforming the bow-tie model into a Bayesian network equivalent. Findings In this study, the probability of top-event from fault tree analysis is calculated as 1.51 × 10−6. Effectiveness of the model is measured by comparing the analysis with the safety performance indicator data that reflects past performance of the airlines. If two data are compared with each other, they are at the same order of value, with small difference (0.6 × 10−7). Originality/value This study proposes a dynamic model to be used in risk assessment processes in airline flight operations. A dynamic model for safety analysis provides real-time, autonomous and faster risk assessment. Moreover, it can help in the decision-making process and reduce airline response time to undesired states, which means that the proposed model can contribute to the efficiency of the risk management process in airline flight operations.