Gravity model of trade approach: what drives Indonesia’s seafood export and its halal market potency in OIC (Organization of Islamic Cooperation) countries

Abstract

Purpose This study aims to unveil the variables that drive Indonesia’s seafood exports to organization of Islamic cooperation (OIC) countries, including a deeper analysis to understand the factors that affect Indonesia’s potential for halal seafood exports, and attempts to validate Linder’s hypothesis, which might occur as part of the determinants of Indonesia’s seafood exports, as well as one of the variables that can affect Indonesia’s potency of halal seafood exports based on economic scale similarities and relative factor endowments. Design/methodology/approach Using Poisson regression by pseudo maximum likelihood, this study applies the theory of trade gravity and Linder’s hypothesis of Indonesia’s seafood exports to OIC countries and its halal market potency over the 30 years observation period from 1992 to 2021, with 47 countries importing Indonesia’s seafood products during the observation period based on United Nations Comtrade statistics. Findings The variables that drive Indonesia’s seafood exports are the situation of the economy between Indonesia and its trading partners, the population of importing countries and the common understanding of language. On the other hand, the adjusted-Muslim GDP of importing countries, the adjusted-Muslim GDP of Indonesia and the number of Muslim inhabitants of importer countries are the factors that affect Indonesia’s potential for halal seafood exports. The study also validates the presence of Linder’s hypothesis in Indonesia’s seafood export and could hint Indonesia’s potential for halal seafood exports Research limitations/implications Owing to the absence of an Harmonized System code that explicitly accommodates trade in halal commodities, especially in halal seafood exports, it will be more accurate if data are available in the future as material for further studies. Future studies may also consider per capita consumption of seafood, food safety standards and the level of food security from OIC countries as variables that might also influence Indonesia’s seafood exports in an approach analysis using the gravity theory of trade. Practical implications This study is part of the authors’ efforts to encourage a greater contribution of the fisheries sector to Indonesia’s GDP by identifying the factors that drive seafood exports, which have so far only been around 2%–3% and have never reached more than 4% in the past two decades. While Indonesia is blessed with extraordinary marine biodiversity and hopes of being the leader of the halal food industry, the fisheries sector is expected to contribute. Originality/value Unlike previous studies that used the approach of the gravity model of trade on food exports, this study is specifically in the field of seafood exports, takes Indonesia as the main object of research and also examines Linder’s hypothesis as part of the analysis to identify what drives Indonesia’s seafood exports in the OIC countries market and fill the scant of studies highlighting the factors that could drive halal food exports, specifically in seafood.