Stock market predictability

Abstract

Purpose – The main objective of this study is to obtain new empirical evidence on non-synchronous trading effects through modelling the predictability of market indices. Design/methodology/approach – The authors test for lead-lag effects between the Indian Nifty and Nifty Junior indices using Pesaran–Timmermann tests and Granger-Causality. Then, a simple test on overnight returns is proposed to infer whether the observed predictability is mainly attributable to non-synchronous trading or some form of inefficiency. Findings – The evidence suggests that non-synchronous trading is a better explanation for the observed predictability in the Indian Stock Market. Research limitations/implications – The indication that non-synchronous trading effects become more pronounced in high-frequency data suggests that prior studies using daily data may underestimate the impacts of non-synchronicity. Originality/value – The originality of the paper rests on various important contributions: overnight returns is looked at to infer whether predictability is more attributable to non-synchronous trading or to some form of inefficiency; the impacts of non-synchronicity are investigated in terms of lead-lag effects rather than serial correlation; and high-frequency data is used which gauges the impacts of non-synchronicity during less active parts of the trading day.