Regarding the finance-investment nexus in sub-Saharan Africa: an issue of too little or too much finance?

Abstract

PurposeThis study investigates the finance-investment nexus in sub-Saharan Africa using data from 41 countries spanning the period from 2000 to 2022. The central question addressed is whether there is a “too little” or “too much” finance problem in the region.Design/methodology/approachThis study employs a system-generalised method of moments (GMM) approach to analyse the association between finance and private investment. Additionally, a dynamic threshold regression model is used to uncover potential nonlinearities in this relationship.FindingsInitially, the study identifies a negative correlation between increased finance and private investment. However, further analysis using the dynamic threshold regression model reveals a critical threshold level of finance. Specifically, the threshold is found to be 6.52% of domestic credit to the private sector and 23.18% using the financial development index. Below this threshold, finance negatively impacts private investment, while surpassing this threshold leads to positive growth in private investment. These findings indicate an issue of “too little” finance in the finance and private investment nexus in sub-Saharan Africa. The results are robust across different model specifications.Research limitations/implicationsThe implications of this study highlight the importance of identifying critical thresholds for financing to enhance investment expenditures in the region.Originality/valueThis study contributes to the literature by uncovering nonlinearities in the finance-investment nexus in sub-Saharan Africa. The identification of critical thresholds provides valuable insights for policymakers, emphasising the need to strengthen the financial sector in countries operating below these thresholds to promote private investment and economic growth.