Post-disaster tourism development and scenario planning for the quality of life of residents

Abstract

Purpose This study aims to explore the influence of postdisaster tourism development on the objective quality of life (QoL) of residents in Wenchuan County, simulate the long-run trend of postdisaster tourism development and QoL based on three proposed policy scenarios and formulate some practical suggestions to promote sustainable tourism development. Design/methodology/approach This study uses the system dynamic approach to develop a system dynamics (SD) model called “tourism–economy–environment–living” (TEEL) by using four subsystems: “the economic subsystem,” “the tourism subsystem,” “the environmental subsystem” and “the living subsystem.” Findings The results show that the influence of postdisaster tourism development on QoL is complex. Based on Butler’s destination life cycle theory, the influence of postdisaster tourism on objective QoL exhibits a nonlinear change closely tied to the development stages of tourist destinations. It showed that the QoL index increased after an initial decrease in the early stage (2009–2013) and then decreased in the later stage (2013–2019). Simulations of TEEL based on three different scenarios show that the current development path of tourism development is not ideal. The synergy scenario, highlighting the importance of the harmonious development of the TEEL, is the optimal scenario. Originality/value This study fills the gap in the literature on the influence of postdisaster tourism development on objective QoL from the perspective of SD. Modeling tourism development and objective QoL will contribute to a comprehensive understanding of whether and how tourism development can enhance residents’ QoL in disaster-affected areas.