Machine learning-aided cost prediction and optimization in construction operations

Abstract

PurposeThis paper aims to use a data-driven approach towards optimizing construction operations. To this extent, it presents a machine learning (ML)-aided optimization approach, wherein the construction cost is predicted as a function of time, resources and environmental impact, which is further used as a surrogate model for cost optimization.Design/methodology/approachTaking a dataset from literature, the paper has applied various ML algorithms, namely, simple and regularized linear regression, random forest, gradient boosted trees, neural network and Gaussian process regression (GPR) to predict the construction cost as a function of time, resources and environmental impact. Further, the trained models were used to optimize the construction cost applying single-objective (with and without constraints) and multi-objective optimizations, employing Bayesian optimization, particle swarm optimization (PSO) and non-dominated sorted genetic algorithm.FindingsThe results presented in the paper demonstrate that the ensemble methods, such as gradient boosted trees, exhibit the best performance for construction cost prediction. Further, it shows that multi-objective optimization can be used to develop a Pareto front for two competing variables, such as cost and environmental impact, which directly allows a practitioner to make a rational decision.Research limitations/implicationsNote that the sequential nature of events which dictates the scheduling is not considered in the present work. This aspect could be incorporated in the future to develop a robust scheme that can optimize the scheduling dynamically.Originality/valueThe paper demonstrates that a ML approach coupled with optimization could enable the development of an efficient and economic strategy to plan the construction operations.