Causal effects of immigration inflows on house prices in a traditionally non-destination country

Abstract

Purpose The purpose of this study is to examine the causal impact of international immigration inflows on housing prices at the state level in Malaysia from 2007 to 2018. Design/methodology/approach Hedonic regressions using both fixed effects and first difference approaches are used to estimate the impact of immigration inflows on house prices in Malaysia. This study deals with potential endogeneity of immigrants’ choices of destination states in Malaysia by using a shift-share instrument variable approach. Specifically, historical shares of immigrants in a state are used to predict current immigrant inflows to a particular state. The predicted value of immigration flows is then inserted into the house price regression models in place of the actual immigration flows. Findings Using annual data for 14 states from 2007 to 2018, this study documents the positive impact of immigration inflows on house prices in Malaysia. The authors find that a 1% increase in immigration inflows is associated with an increase of 10.2% (first difference) and 13.4% (fixed effects) in house prices. The economic impact is larger in magnitude than that found in developed countries. Contrary to existing studies that find immigration inflows to be associated with native flight, the authors find support for the attraction effects hypothesis, where immigration inflow is positive and significantly related to net native flows. Research limitations/implications The effects of immigration inflows are economically significant, considering that the effects are 10 times larger than those documented in the USA. Policymakers in Malaysia ought to monitor house price trends in immigrant-popular states to ensure that natives are not priced out by new immigrants. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is perhaps the first study to focus on the relationship between immigration inflows and house prices in Malaysia. Focusing on Malaysia has at least two originality aspects. First, Malaysia is relatively not an immigrant-popular destination. Second, Malaysia has a multiracial and heterogenous society among its natives. The findings, obtained within these two settings, would therefore provide a wider scope of result generalization, and natural experiment grounds for causal implications of our results.