The impact of order imbalance on returns, liquidity, and volatility in agricultural commodity markets

Abstract

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate and compare the impact of order imbalance on returns, liquidity and price volatility in agricultural futures markets on an intraday basis. The authors examine whether order imbalance is more powerful to explain variations in asset prices compared to other indicators of trading activity, particularly trading volume. Design/methodology/approach Using Chicago Mercantile Exchange best bid best offer data, the impact of order imbalance is analyzed via regression analyses. The analyses are carried out for corn, wheat, soy, live cattle and lean hogs in March 2008 and March 2016. Findings Results confirm the positive relation between order imbalance and returns as well as between order imbalance and price volatility as suggested by market microstructure models. Order imbalance, however, does not generally outperform trading volume as an explanatory variable. Practical implications For some contracts, returns can be predicted using lagged order imbalance. This offers the opportunity to derive profitable trading strategies. Originality/value This paper is one of the first attempts to explore the relationship between order imbalance and returns, liquidity and volatility for agricultural commodity futures on an intraday basis, accounting for the increased trading volume and for the high speed at which new information enters the market in an electronic trading environment.