Application of PSO algorithm to choose the best scenario for energy demand forecast of residential and commercial sectors in Iran

Abstract

Purpose This paper aims to select the best scenario for energy demand forecast of residential and commercial sectors in Iran by using particle swarm optimization algorithm. Design/methodology/approach In this study, using variables affecting energy demand of residential and commercial sectors in Iran, the future status of energy demand in these sectors is predicted. Using the particle swarm optimization algorithm, both linear and exponential forms of energy demand equations were studied under 72 different scenarios with various variables. The data from 1968 to 2011 were applied for model development and the appropriate scenario choice. Findings An exponential model with inputs including total value added minus that of the oil sector, value of made buildings, total number of households and consumer energy price index is the most suitable model. Finally, energy demand of residential and commercial sectors is estimated up to the year 2032. Results show that the energy demand of the sectors will achieve a level of about 1,718 million barrels of oil equivalent per year by 2032. Originality/value To the best of our knowledge in this study a suitable model is selected for energy demand forecast of residential and commercial sectors by evaluation of various models with different variables as inputs.