A SIMPLE EMPIRICAL METHOD FOR PREDICTING LIBRARY CIRCULATIONS

Abstract

Recent work has demonstrated that stochastic models, incorporating a time parameter, have great potential value for library management in predicting future use of library materials, particularly in the presence of ageing of materials. In this paper a simple empirical Bayes method is presented which avoids the analytic complexity of earlier models and which may therefore be more attractive to the library manager. In particular, the ‘prediction profile’ is advocated as a useful additon to the manager's toolbox.