STCGCN: a spatio-temporal complete graph convolutional network for remaining useful life prediction of power transformer

Abstract

Purpose Remaining useful life (RUL) prediction for power transformer maintenance is a challenging task on heterogeneous data. Monitoring data of power transformers are not always compatible or in an identical format; therefore, RUL predictions traditionally work separately on different data. Moreover, chemical molecules used in RUL prediction can be transformed into each other under different conditions, thus forming a complete graph with uncertain adjacency matrix (UAM). This study aims to find and evaluate a new model to achieve better results of RUL prediction than the other baselines. Design/methodology/approach In this work, the authors propose a spatiotemporal complete graph convolutional network (STCGCN) for RUL prediction in two branches, in which daily and hourly features are extracted from correlated heterogeneous data separately. This study provides a thorough evaluation of the proposed model on real-world data and compare the proposed model with state-of-the-art RUL prediction models. Findings By using the multibranch structure and EucCos similarity aggregation, STCGCN was able to capture the dynamic spatiotemporal patterns on a variety of heterogeneous data and obtain more accurate prediction results, compared to other time series prediction methods. Originality/value In this work, the authors propose a novel multibranch structure to compute feature maps from two heterogeneous data sources efficiently and a novel similarity aggregation method to compute the spatial UAM within the complete graph. Compared with traditional time series prediction models, the model pays attention to the spatial relationships in time series data.