Does work from home reshape the urban rental structure? Early evidence from a rental gradient analysis in Auckland

Abstract

Purpose This study aims to identify the pandemic’s impact on house rents by applying a rental gradient analysis to compare the pre-and post-COVID-19 periods in Auckland. The micro-level household census data from the Integrated Data Infrastructure of Statistics New Zealand is also applied to scrutinise this WFH trend as a robustness check. Design/methodology/approach Since the outbreak of COVID-19, work-from-home (WFH) and e-commerce have become much more common in many cities. Many news reports have contended that households are leaving city centres and moving into bigger and better houses in the suburbs or rural areas. This emerging trend has been redefining the traditional theory of residential location choices. Proximity to central business district (CBD) is no longer the most critical consideration in choosing one’s residence. WFH and e-commerce flatten the traditional bid rent curve from the city centre. Findings The authors examined micro-level housing rental listings in 242 suburbs of the Auckland Region from January 2013 to December 2021 (108 months) and found that the hedonic price gradient models suggest that there has been a trend of rental gradient flattening and that its extent was almost doubled in 2021. Rents are also found to be increasing more in lower-density suburbs. Research limitations/implications The results imply that the pandemic has accelerated the trend of WFH and e-commerce. The authors further discuss whether the trend will be a transient phenomenon or a long-term shift. Practical implications Suppose an organisation is concerned about productivity and performance issues due to a companywide ability to WFH. In that case, some standard key performance indicators for management and employees could be implemented. Forward-thinking cities need to focus on attracting skilful workers by making WFH a possible solution, not by insisting on the primacy of antiquated nine-to-five office cultures. Social implications WFH has traditionally encountered resistance, but more and more companies are adopting WFH policies in this post-COVID era. The early rental gradient and the micro-level household data analysis all confirm that the WFH trend is emerging and will likely be a long-term shift. Instead of resisting the change, organisations should improve their remote work policies and capabilities for this WFH trend. Originality/value So far, empirical studies of post-COVID urban restructuring have been limited. This study aims to empirically test such an urban metamorphosis by identifying the spatial and temporal impacts of COVID on house rental gradients in the Auckland Region, New Zealand. The authors apply rental gradient analysis to test this urban restructuring hypothesis because the method considers the spatial-temporal differences, i.e. a difference-in-differences between pre-and post-pandemic period against the distance measured from the city centre. The method can control for the spatial difference and the endogeneity involved.