Complementarities creating substitutes – possible paths towards 3G, WLAN/WiMAX and ad hoc networks

Abstract

PurposeInternet and GSM have become the dominant designs for information and communication technology (ICT) industries in the late 1990s. Internet protocol (IP) is the dominant standard for cost effective networking and new interactive broadband services. GSM (2G) is currently the dominant cellular technology and it is the basis of GSM, GPRS (2.5G) and UMTS (3G), the GSM‐continuum of standards. The marriage of broadband internet and mobile has created open questions on which are the future winning wireless standards. Will mobile internet be based on the GSM‐continuum or on US wireless developments such as WLAN and WiMAX? In longer time‐scale the Mobile Ad‐hoc Network (MANET) which does not use any preinstalled communications infrastructure may also become a cost‐effective challenger to infrastructure based networks. The paper seeks to address these issues.Design/methodology/approachThe paper elaborates these questions with the aim to provide an analytically clarifying conceptualisation of the competitive relationships between 3G, WLAN/WiMAX and the emerging MANET opportunities both in network and application perspectives. By considering the interaction of the possible competitive regimes we analyze the disruptive capabilities of new solutions to become substitutes to the existing ones.FindingsThere are a number of open issues in the WLAN/WiMAX and MANET architectures, which require further work and global standardization. For the while, the integration of the personal applications to the GSM continuum seems to be the most potential approach to import internet to the mobile world. However, there is no winner yet, and the author strongly believes that a new wave of innovations may come around these lines and that these developments will also change the mobile technology and services landscape.Originality/valueThe paper contributes with a systemantic analysis of the competition between 3G, WLAN/WiMAX and ad hoc network technologies. A novelty in the analysis is that it incorporates both network access technologies and applications.