Bridging the gap between scenarios and models

Abstract

Practitioners of futures research think that most modelling, and especially economic modelling, is concerned with forecasting. Since it is generally agreed that futures research is not concerned with deterministic views of the future, futures researchers have turned their back on quantitative methods, relying instead on scenario methods. However, given the progress made in modelling techniques, there are no reasons to maintain the divorce between futures research and modelling, especially economic modelling. Both can provide interesting insights about the future and these insights can certainly be improved by using all available techniques.