Short-term train arrival delay prediction: a data-driven approach

Abstract

PurposeTo optimize train operations, dispatchers currently rely on experience for quick adjustments when delays occur. However, delay predictions often involve imprecise shifts based on known delay times. Real-time and accurate train delay predictions, facilitated by data-driven neural network models, can significantly reduce dispatcher stress and improve adjustment plans. Leveraging current train operation data, these models enable swift and precise predictions, addressing challenges posed by train delays in high-speed rail networks during unforeseen events.Design/methodology/approachThis paper proposes CBLA-net, a neural network architecture for predicting late arrival times. It combines CNN, Bi-LSTM, and attention mechanisms to extract features, handle time series data, and enhance information utilization. Trained on operational data from the Beijing-Tianjin line, it predicts the late arrival time of a target train at the next station using multidimensional input data from the target and preceding trains.FindingsThis study evaluates our model's predictive performance using two data approaches: one considering full data and another focusing only on late arrivals. Results show precise and rapid predictions. Training with full data achieves a MAE of approximately 0.54 minutes and a RMSE of 0.65 minutes, surpassing the model trained solely on delay data (MAE: is about 1.02 min, RMSE: is about 1.52 min). Despite superior overall performance with full data, the model excels at predicting delays exceeding 15 minutes when trained exclusively on late arrivals. For enhanced adaptability to real-world train operations, training with full data is recommended.Originality/valueThis paper introduces a novel neural network model, CBLA-net, for predicting train delay times. It innovatively compares and analyzes the model's performance using both full data and delay data formats. Additionally, the evaluation of the network's predictive capabilities considers different scenarios, providing a comprehensive demonstration of the model's predictive performance.