Real effects of real estate: evidence from unemployment rates

Abstract

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the relationship between residential real estate prices and unemployment rates at the Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) level. Design/methodology/approach This paper uses a long time-series of MSA-level quarterly data from 1990 to 2018. It uses an instrumental variable approach to estimate the effects of residential real estate prices on unemployment rates using the geography-based land constraints measure of Saiz (2010) as the instrument. Findings The results show that changes in residential real estate prices do not have a causal effect on unemployment rates in the same quarter. However, it takes 9-12 months for an increase (decrease) in real estate prices to decrease (increase) unemployment rates. This effect is significant during both pre- and post-financial crisis periods and robust to control for the economic characteristics of MSAs. Research limitations/implications This paper contributes to the emerging literature that studies the real effects of real estate. Particularly, the methodology and the findings can be used to investigate causal relationships between housing prices and small business development or economic growth. The findings are also of interest to policymakers and practitioners as they illustrate how and when real estate price shocks propagate to the real economy through unemployment rates. Practical implications This study’s findings have important implications for academics, policymakers and investors as they provide evidence of a snowball effect associated with shocks to real estate prices: increasing (decreasing) unemployment rates following a decrease (increase) in real estate prices exacerbates the real estate price movements and their economic consequences. Originality/value This paper analyzes a significantly longer period, from 1990 to 2018, than the existing literature. Additionally, it uses the MSA-level land unavailability measure of Saiz (2010) as an instrument to explore the effects of residential real estate prices on unemployment rates and when those effects are observed in the real economy.