Integration between real estate and stock markets: new evidence from Pakistan

Abstract

PurposeThis study aims to empirically examine the relationship between real estate and stock market of Pakistan.Design/methodology/approachThe data of two real estate indices (house price index and plot price index) are taken for the Pakistan and its four big cities, i.e. Lahore, Karachi, Rawalpindi and Islamabad. It estimates the integration between series by applying the Johansen cointegration test. Moreover, the vector error correction model is applied to examine the short and long-run causal relationships between series.FindingsThe findings show that the real estate markets are cointegrated with the stock market. They imply that the real estate and stock markets are good substitutes in investment allocation, but investors cannot get the benefit of diversification by making a portfolio of real estate and stock markets in Pakistan. Moreover, the long-run causality is observed from majority house markets to the stock market, whereas short-run causality is evident from majority plot markets to the stock market. Hence, the real estate market leads the stock market in the short run and long run, suggesting the credit-price effect in the majority of real estate markets in Pakistan. These causality results are helpful for investors in the forecasting of real estate and stock markets in Pakistan.Research limitations/implicationsThe limitation of the study is the lower number of observations (107), because house and land prices are only available in monthly frequency from January 2011 in Pakistan.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors’ knowledge, no researcher has investigated the real estate and stock market nexus in Pakistan. Therefore, this study focuses on examining the relationship between the real estate and stock market of Pakistan. The link between real estate and stock markets will provide useful insights to the portfolio managers, real estate companies, property agents, stockbrokers and investors.