COVID-19 case fatality rates across Southeast Asian countries (SEA): a preliminary estimate using a simple linear regression model

Abstract

PurposeThe purpose of this study was to determine COVID-19 preliminary case fatality rates (CFR) across Southeast Asian (SEA) countries.Design/methodology/approachThe study accessed the data on COVID-19 accumulated cases of fatalities and infections across SEA countries from the World Health Organization (WHO) website, covering the early days of March to May 21, 2020. The approach involved the computation of the CFR using the simple linear regression model. The slope of the regression line was the estimate of the CFR at a 95% confidence interval. The study also reviewed the different approaches of the SEA countries in dealing with the pandemic.FindingsAs of May 21, 2020, Singapore, Indonesia and the Philippines were the top three SEA countries with the highest record of COVID-19 infections. Brunei had one fatality, while Cambodia, Laos, Timor-Leste and Viet Nam had nil fatalities. Indonesia and the Philippines had the highest CFR with 6.66 and 6.59%, with R2 of 97.95 and 99.43%, respectively. Singapore had the lowest CFR (0.068%) despite high infections.Originality/valueIncreased CFR in Indonesia and the Philippines suggests that COVID-19 in the two countries is rising at an alarming rate. Strict implementation of shared management approaches to control the pandemic is seen to be closely associated with the decrease of CFR.