Coordination of similar days and multi-objective posterior process to predict energy of transmission substation

Abstract

Purpose This paper aims to present a hybrid model to mid-term forecast the load of transmission substations based on the knowledge of expert site and multi-objective posterior framework. The main important challenges in load forecasting are the different behavior of load in specific days. Regular days, holidays and special holidays, days after a holidays and days of load shifting are characterized by abnormal load profiles. The knowledge of these days is verified by expert operators in regional dispatching centers. Design/methodology/approach In this paper, a hybrid model for power prediction of transmission substations based on the combination of similar day selection and multi-objective posterior technique has been proposed. In the first step, the important data for prediction is provided. Posterior method is used in the second step for prediction that it is based on kernel functions. A multi-objective optimization has been formulated with three type of output accuracy measurement function that it is solved by non-dominated sorting genetic technique II (NSGT-II) method. TOPSIS way is used to find the best point of Pareto. Findings The presented method has been tested in four scenarios for three different transmission stations, and the test results have been compared. The presented results indicate that the presentation method has better results and is robust to different load characteristics, which can be used for better forecasting of different stations for better planning of repairs and network operation. Originality/value The main contributions of this paper can be categorized as follows: A hybrid model based on similar days selection and multi-objective framework posterior is presented. Similar day selection is done by expert site that the day type and days with scheduled repair are considered. Hyperparameters of posterior process are found by NSGT-II based on TOPSIS method.