The effect of different periods of unconventional monetary policies on Japanese financial markets

Abstract

PurposeThis study aims to examine to what extent the Japanese financial markets are affected by the four periods of unconventional monetary policies (UMP) implemented by the Bank of Japan from 2013 to 2020.Design/methodology/approachUsing the daily 10-year term spread as a proxy for monetary easing policy, this study uses four sub-sample periods from 2013 to 2020 to look into the effectiveness of UMP on the Japanese financial markets.FindingsOur result shows that not all of the Bank of Japan's unconventional monetary policies are equally effective in influencing the Japanese financial markets. In particular, the QQE policy implemented from April 2013 to October 2014 effectively influenced the stock market, banking sector and foreign exchange market. However, the financial market impact of monetary policy is muted during the QQE expansion period. Likewise, the QQE with a negative interest rate policy influences only the banking sector. Finally, the QQE with its yield curve control policy effectively impacts the financial markets.Research limitations/implicationsThis research can be expanded by studying the international spillover effect of the Bank of Japan's UMP on the financial markets in Asian countries.Practical implicationsThe findings of this study enable investors to understand the causal relationship between the Bank of Japan's UMP and the financial market indicators, thereby helping them to position their portfolio investments. From the policy perspective, the finding is useful to inform the Bank of Japan on which policy is relatively effective in affecting the financial markets. In light of the empirical finding, the Bank of Japan should continue to pursue the QQE YCCP or revert to the initial QQE policy, as the two policies are relatively more effective than the QQE expansion and QQE NIRP in affecting the Japanese financial markets.Social implicationsThe empirical finding highlights the importance of controlling for the impact of different QQE policies in the model. Future research may consider conducting sub-sample analysis to cater to the different QQE policy regimes. This approach provides a clearer picture and valid inferences on the financial market impact of each QQE policy.Originality/valueThis study provides a comprehensive analysis of the impact of Bank of Japan's QQE on the Japanese financial markets. For the market participants, the findings of this study suggest that investors should closely gauge the development of the unconventional monetary policies of the Bank of Japan because the monetary easing policy influences the decision-making process of commercial banks, pension funds, mutual funds, retail investors and other stakeholders in the financial markets. The policy twist will have future ramifications for their loan, investment and retirement fund portfolios.