Risk analysis of electrical power grids in India using best-worst method and grey causal modelling

Abstract

PurposeThe study aims to identify the possible risk factors for electricity grids operational disruptions and to determine the most critical and influential risk indicators.Design/methodology/approachA multi-criteria decision-making best-worst method (BWM) is employed to quantitatively identify the most critical risk factors. The grey causal modeling (GCM) technique is employed to identify the causal and consequence factors and to effectively quantify them. The data used in this study consisted of two types – quantitative periodical data of critical factors taken from their respective government departments (e.g. Indian Meteorological Department, The Central Water Commission etc.) and the expert responses collected from professionals working in the Indian electric power sector.FindingsThe results of analysis for a case application in the Indian context shows that temperature dominates as the critical risk factor for electrical power grids, followed by humidity and crop production.Research limitations/implicationsThe study helps to understand the contribution of factors in electricity grids operational disruptions. Considering the cause consequences from the GCM causal analysis, rainfall, temperature and dam water levels are identified as the causal factors, while the crop production, stock prices, commodity prices are classified as the consequence factors. In practice, these causal factors can be controlled to reduce the overall effects.Practical implicationsFrom the results of the analysis, managers can use these outputs and compare the risk factors in electrical power grids for prioritization and subsequent considerations. It can assist the managers in efficient allocation of funds and manpower for building safeguards and creating risk management protocols based on the severity of the critical factor.Originality/valueThe research comprehensively analyses the risk factors of electrical power grids in India. Moreover, the study apprehends the cause-consequence pair of factors, which are having the maximum effect. Previous studies have been focused on identification of risk factors and preliminary analysis of their criticality using autoregression. This research paper takes it forward by using decision-making methods and causal analysis of the risk factors with blend of quantitative and expert response based data analysis to focus on the determination of the criticality of the risk factors for the Indian electric power grid.