Unified approach for modeling innovation adoption and optimal model selection for the diffusion process

Abstract

Purpose – Mathematical modeling of innovation diffusion is a constantly evolving field within marketing science. The diffusion process explains the dispersion of an innovation among potential buyers. Prior research on innovation diffusion has been based on modeling varied aspects of real life situations in marketing. One such aspect is studying the adoption process depending on the awareness and motivation level among the customers. Awareness is having knowledge of an innovation, whereas motivation is about the perception of an individual. In line with these aspects, the purpose of this paper is to propose a unified modeling framework for the adoption process based on the awareness and motivation about the product. Design/methodology/approach – When the market is well informed about the product, there are some people who are motivated and some, who have adopted the product earlier and shall now influence others in their buying behavior. It is very much similar to queuing system in which some units are waiting in a queue for the service, service for some units are being processed and some units have already been served. This analogous behavior between two approaches has motivated the use of infinite server queuing theory in modeling adoption of the product. Thereafter, the authors have proposed a unification scheme to model different market scenarios. Findings – From analyzing the values of comparison criteria, it was not clear that which among them is performing best. Thus there was a need for an approach which can judiciously find the optimal model. For this very purpose the authors applied distance-based approach which was capable of computing the optimal model based on the distance of attribute value from the optimal. The analysis performed on two real life sales data sets depict that model in which awareness is following logistic pattern and motivation and adoption are following a constant pattern is ranked one. Research limitations/implications – The idea has been validated on product. It would be interesting to know how the methodology works on service. Originality/value – The modeling framework discussed in this paper can be helpful to know from the available set of alternative, which among them is performing better in capturing the spread of the product in the market. The proposed framework offer some managerial guidance by highlighting the unusual aspects of diffusion process and also present an approach to judge the best among a set of different models.