Spillover effects of liquidity management in major economies and China's digital economy-driven countermeasures

Abstract

PurposeThis paper aims to enhance the Global Projection Model (GPM) developed by the International Monetary Fund by constructing a GPM4 model that includes the United States of America, the Eurozone, Japan and China.Design/methodology/approachThis article introduces the United States of America, the Eurozone, Japan and China into a comprehensive global forecasting model, analyzing the impact of liquidity management in G3 economies on nine key macroeconomic variables in China.FindingsThe findings reveal that the liquidity management strategies employed by major economies do exert a certain influence on China's major macroeconomic variables. Different types of liquidity shocks elicit varying effects. Monetary shocks exhibit the strongest instantaneous impact, while credit conditions and policy rate shocks contribute more significantly to China's long-term macroeconomic fluctuations. However, no single shock stands out as the dominant factor.Originality/valueThis paper attempts to expand the GPM model developed by the International Monetary Fund and build a GPM4 model including China, the United States of America, the Eurozone and Japan. For the first time, the GPM model was used to analyze the spillover effects of liquidity management in major economies on China's macroeconomy and revealed the impact of non-price factors such as credit conditions on China's macroeconomic variables.