Proactive policing and the assessment of organised crime

Abstract

PurposeContemporary policing and the control of (organised) crime involve priority setting, strategic planning and the use of strategic planning tools. The purpose of this paper is to make a contribution to the fast‐growing body of literature on intelligence‐led policing, and explore new concepts and methods to aid the strategic decision making of actors involved in policing organised crime.Design/methodology/approachThis paper argues that priority setting and strategic planning in the field of organised crime is inherently characterised by uncertainty. The authors examine to what extent policymakers can plan and anticipate coming organised crime threats. It is argued that, while predicting such issues is impossible, policymakers can prepare for them. It is suggested that the field of scenario studies can provide tools that can support strategic planning and the assessment of security challenges in the field of organised crime control. A scenario study is presented on the vulnerability of economic sectors to illustrate and develop this claim.FindingsScenario studies do not predict the future of organised crime, nor do they replace information‐gathering methodologies and crime intelligence applications that support concrete criminal investigations. Scenario studies are sensitising tools that force strategic planners to examine the assumptions and knowledge base on which they base their decisions. To that end, scenario studies combine the analysis of law enforcement data and scientific analysis of organised crime with analysis of issues most vital to societies, regions, cities, etc. The analytical focus shifts from targeting concrete offenders to detecting opportunities and weaknesses in structural processes that may not always be visible to police organizations, but pose significant security risks if left unattended. The scenario study that is presented on the vulnerability of economic sectors in the EU illustrates that scenario studies can amend traditional crime intelligence in this manner.Research limitations/implicationsThe paper is limited to a conceptual study and a concrete scenario study. Future research might shed more light on implementation/evaluation issues of scenario‐based planning.Practical implicationsThe paper offers a conceptual and methodological framework for scenario‐based strategic planning.Originality/valueThe paper intends to advance the debate on organized crime assessments in light of the development towards intelligence‐led policing strategies. To that end, new concepts and a different methodological framework are suggested.