Author:
Sarkar Bishal Dey,Gupta Laxmi
Abstract
Purpose
The conflict in Russian Ukraine is a problem for the world economy because it hinders growth and drives up inflation when it is already high. The trade route between India and Russia is also impacted by the Russia-Ukraine crisis. This study aims to compile the most recent data on how the present global economic crisis is affecting it, with particular emphasis on the Indian economy.
Design/methodology/approach
This research develops a mathematical forecasting model to evaluate how the Russia-Ukraine crisis would affect the Indian economy when perturbations are applied to the major transport sectors. Input-output modeling (I-O model) and interval programing (IP) are the two precise methods used in the model. The inoperability I-O model developed by Wassily Leontief examines how disruption in one sector of the economy spreads to the other. To capture data uncertainties, IP has been added to IIM.
Findings
This study uses the forecasted inoperability value to analyze how the sectors are interconnected. Economic loss is used to determine the lowest and highest priority sectors due to the Russia-Ukraine crisis on the Indian economy. Furthermore, this study provides a decision-support conclusion for studying the sectors under various scenarios.
Research limitations/implications
In future studies, other sectors could be added to study the Russian-Ukrainian crises’ effects on the Indian economy. Perturbation is only applied to transport sectors and could be applied to other sectors for studying the effects of the crisis. The availability of incomplete data is a significant concern in this study.
Originality/value
Russia-Ukraine conflict is a significant blow to the global economy and affects the global transportation network. This study discusses the application of the IIM-IP model to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. It also forecasts the values to examine how the crisis affected the Indian economy. This study uses a variety of scenarios to create a decision-support conclusion table that aids decision-makers in analyzing the Indian economy’s lowest and most affected sectors as a result of the crisis.
Subject
Organizational Behavior and Human Resource Management,Management Science and Operations Research,Strategy and Management
Reference42 articles.
1. Does oil connect differently with prominent assets during war? Analysis of intra-day data during the Russia-Ukraine saga;Resources Policy,2022
2. War termination and conflict theory: value premises, theories, and policies;The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science,1970
3. Epidemiological and economic impact of COVID-19 in the US;Scientific Reports,2021
4. Does the Russia-Ukraine war lead to currency asymmetries? A US dollar tale;The Journal of Economic Asymmetries,2022
5. Russia-Ukraine war: impact on Indian economy;International Journal of Novel Research and Development (IJNRD),2022