Risk assessment method for controlled flight into terrain of airlines based on QAR data

Abstract

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to assess the risk of controlled flight into terrain (CFIT) for airlines and to develop a practical method for evaluating and predicting CFIT risk to ensure safe and efficient airline operations. Design/methodology/approach In accordance with the monitoring project specification issued by the Flight Standards Department of the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC), a preliminary draft of evaluation indicators for CFIT risk was developed based on the literature review and semi-structured interviews. Fifteen aviation experts were then selected and invited to participate in a Delphi method to revise the draft. Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and entropy weight method were used to determine the combined weight of the indicators. The variable fuzzy set model and quick access recorder (QAR) data were applied to evaluate the CFIT risk of an airline from 2007 to 2018, and the classification results were compared with actual operational data. Findings The research findings reveal that the six most significant monitoring items affecting CFIT risk are incorrect configuration settings during landing, loss of altitude during climbing, ground proximity warning, G/S deviation, flap extension delay during landing and incorrect takeoff configuration. The CFIT risk of airlines has shown an increasing trend since 2015. The values in 2010, 2017 and 2018 were greater than 2 and less than 2.5, indicating that the CFIT risk is at Level 2, close to Level 3, and the risk is low but approaching medium. Practical implications Using the combination weight determined by AHP and entropy weight method to rank the weight of 15 monitoring items, airlines can take necessary measures (simulator training, knowledge training) to reduce the occurrence of monitoring items with high weight to reduce CFIT risk. This risk assessment method can quantitatively evaluate the CFIT risk of airlines and provide theoretical guidance and technical support for airlines to formulate safety management measures and flight training programs, enabling the interconnection between QAR data and flight quality. Originality/value The proposed method in this study differs from traditional approaches by offering a quantitative assessment of CFIT risk for airlines and enabling the interconnection between QAR data and flight quality.