European emerging real estate markets

Abstract

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to improve the transparency of European emerging real estate market dynamics and performance attributes in the wake of the 2007-2008 global financial crisis (GFC). The paper examines the extent and nature of inter-relationships between three emerging real estate markets namely, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland as well as determining the rationale for including emerging real estate markets within a Pan-European investment portfolio. The paper affords a timely update following the reinstatement of lending provision for European emerging real estate investment markets in 2014. Design/methodology/approach – The paper employs lead-lag correlations and Grainger causality to examine inter and intra relationships across three emerging European real estate markets, namely the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland over the period 2006-2014. Optimal portfolio analysis is undertaken to explore the role of emerging real estate markets within the confines of a multi-asset investment portfolio as well as a Pan-European real estate investment portfolio. Findings – The findings demonstrate the opportunities afforded by the European emerging real estate markets in terms of both performance enhancement and risk diversification. Significantly, the findings highlight the lack of “uniformity” across the European emerging markets in terms of their investment potential, with Grainger causality confirming that the real estate markets in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland are not endogenous functions of one-another’s performance. Practical implications – This paper makes a considered contribution to the analytical interpretation of European emerging property market performance across the real estate cycle. The research demonstrates that the real estate markets in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland exhibit specific investment characteristics which differentiate them from the more developed real estate markets across Europe. Indeed emerging markets have the propensity to serve as both a risk diversifier as well as performance enhancer within the confines of a pan-European real estate investment portfolio. However, as the research clearly articulates, intricate understanding of the attributes afforded by the different emerging markets as well as the divergence in sectoral dynamics/performance is integral to portfolio allocation strategies. Originality/value – Robust academic research on Europe’s emerging real estate markets has been hampered by deficiencies in data provision. This study makes an innovative and timely contribution to redressing the research vacuum through delineated examination of the performance dynamics of three markets namely, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland, across the real estate cycle. The role and function of emerging markets is depicted within the confines of a Pan-European direct real estate investment portfolio at the all property level and in terms of sectoral specific allocations comprising retail, office and industrial. The explicit added value of the paper is the propensity to bench-mark the performance of emerging markets real estate markets on a like-for-like basis with developed real estate markets across Europe facilitating the exploration of the role and function of emerging real estate markets within a Pan-European investment context.