The economic impact of a rise in US trade protectionism on East Asia

Abstract

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the economic impact of a rising US trade protectionism on the economies of China, Japan, South Korea and the ASEAN countries and draw out some policy and strategic implications for the USA and East Asia. Design/methodology/approach The authors employ a computable general equilibrium approach supplemented with qualitative analyses based on empirical evidence. Findings An increase in US import tariffs would result in economic losses for the USA and the corresponding country or region to which the import tariff increase is applied. An increase in US import tariffs for Chinese goods alone would not have any spillover effects on other East Asian countries. But, an imposition of a border adjustment tax (BAT) for all countries and for all products would actually boost US economic growth. Advanced economies would enjoy GDP increases, but China, Korea and the ASEAN countries would face an economic loss in a longer term period, although they would enjoy some growth in the short term. However, when the BAT only applies to a specific East Asian country, USA would suffer an economic loss, with the exception of a BAT specifically targeted at the ASEAN countries. ASEAN countries would not experience any economic loss under all scenarios except in the case of import tariffs specifically targeted at ASEAN. Research limitations/implications From the US perspective, it is beneficial to adopt a BAT for all countries and across the board. Under this arrangement, there would be an economic loss for China, Korea and the ASEAN countries in the longer term. An increase in US trade protectionism would only push the East Asian countries towards deeper economic integration, with serious implications for global pattern of trade and investment. Originality/value The existing literature on the likely economic impact of US trade protectionism on East Asia is very scarce and based on surveys and subjective speculations. This study uses a quantitative method based on empirical evidence.