Fair value, equity cash flow and project finance valuation: ambiguities and a solution

Abstract

Purpose The literature on project finance appraisal contains several ambiguities mainly concerning the correct method of equity cash flow (ECF) determination. This vagueness can lead to serious misevaluation of these projects. The purpose of this paper is to present and justify a correct method of ECF determination for project finance evaluation. Design/methodology/approach Based on the analysis of the specificity of project finance ventures and the study of existing literature, the authors propose a coherent model of ECF estimation that avoids misevaluating project finance ventures. Findings This paper demonstrates that the potential dividends methodology of ECF estimation, used commonly in the corporate finance world, leads to the erroneous valuation of project finance investments. Moreover, simulations demonstrate that the scale of this misevaluation is an increasing function of the debt covenant duration, the required rate of return, and the investment outlay dispersion over time. The proposed model of proper project finance valuation, despite inconsistency with assumptions of the fair value concept, is best suited for project finance venture appraisal, taking into consideration the inherently specific timing of the ECF. Originality/value This paper rectifies, clarifies, and extends the range of existing solutions for the project finance valuation and the application of the concepts of actual dividends and potential dividends in different valuation contexts. Furthermore, it proposes a simple and coherent method to value project finance ventures. Additionally, it offers evidence of the scale of NPV misevaluation in project finance, which occurs when the potential dividends approach is utilized.