The UK pig cycle: a spectral analysis

Abstract

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to identify cyclical patterns in the prices and production of UK pigmeat, 1989‐2008.Design/methodology/approachThe approach takes the form of spectral analysis.FindingsResults show evidence of both annual and seasonal cycles, but there is little evidence of a three‐to‐four‐year cycle. The likely cause of the latter's absence is increasing imports and a changing market structure.Practical implicationsConventional wisdom is that the traditional pig cycle is of three‐to‐four years' duration and the UK's pig policy is based partly on its existence and that the design and implementation of UK pig policy are predicated on the basis of a traditional cycle is misplaced.Originality/valueNo previous or recent empirical investigation of the UK pig cycle exists, perhaps because its existence is considered to be axiomatic.