The impact of foreign direct investment on trade in Pakistan: the moderating role of terrorism

Abstract

PurposePakistan suffered with the menace of terrorism for long and become a front line state in the “War on Terror”. Terrorism shattered Pakistan economy and rendered her external sector vulnerable to instability and uncertainties.Design/methodology/approachTherefore, using system generalized method of moment (GMM), this paper investigates the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on exports, imports and trade deficit in the face of unabated terrorism in Pakistan.FindingsThe findings of the paper suggest that as terrorism in Pakistan increased, FDI contribution to Pakistan exports decreased while FDI contribution to Pakistan imports significantly increased. Terrorism also disrupted the chain of local production and increased Pakistan reliance on imports. Thus terrorism widened Pakistan trade deficit of Pakistan and expose Pakistan to external imbalances.Originality/valueDespite rise in organized acts of terrorism and its adverse impact on various departments of economy, hardly any study bothers to check its impact on trade and investment nexus. This is the first study of its nature that looks deep down to understand how terrorism affects the relation of major economic variables.