Forecasting Chinese carbon emission intensity based on the interactive effect GM(1,N) power model

Abstract

PurposeThis study aims to predict China's carbon emission intensity and put forward a set of policy recommendations for further development of a low-carbon economy in China.Design/methodology/approachIn this paper, the Interaction Effect Grey Power Model of N Variables (IEGPM(1,N)) is developed, and the Dragonfly algorithm (DA) is used to select the best power index for the model. Specific model construction methods and rigorous mathematical proofs are given. In order to verify the applicability and validity, this paper compares the model with the traditional grey model and simulates the carbon emission intensity of China from 2014 to 2021. In addition, the new model is used to predict the carbon emission intensity of China from 2022 to 2025, which can provide a reference for the 14th Five-Year Plan to develop a scientific emission reduction path.FindingsThe results show that if the Chinese government does not take effective policy measures in the future, carbon emission intensity will not achieve the set goals. The IEGPM(1,N) model also provides reliable results and works well in simulation and prediction.Originality/valueThe paper considers the nonlinear and interactive effect of input variables in the system's behavior and proposes an improved grey multivariable model, which fills the gap in previous studies.