Technological learning modelling towards sustainable energy planning

Abstract

PurposeObviously, the development of a robust optimization framework is the main step in energy and climate policy. In other words, the challenge of energy policy assessment requires the application of approaches which recognize the complexity of energy systems in relation to technological, social, economic and environmental aspects. This paper aims to develop a two-sided multi-agent based modelling framework which endogenizes the technological learning mechanism to determine the optimal generation plan. In this framework, the supplier agents try to maximize their income while complying with operational, technical and market penetration rates constraints. A case study is used to illustrate the application of the proposed planning approach. The results showed that considering the endogenous technology cost reduction moves optimal investment timings to earlier planning years and influences the competitiveness of technologies. The proposed integrated approach provides not only an economical generation expansion plan but also a cleaner one compared to the traditional approach.Design/methodology/approachTo the best of the authors’ knowledge, so far there has not been any agent-based generation expansion planning (GEP) incorporating technology learning mechanism into the modelling framework. The main contribution of this paper is to introduce a multi-agent based modelling for long-term GEP and undertakes to show how incorporating technological learning issues in supply agents behaviour modelling influence on renewable technology share in the optimal mix of technologies. A case study of the electric power system of Iran is used to illustrate the usefulness of the proposed planning approach and also to demonstrate its efficiency.FindingsAs seen, the share of the renewable technology agents (geothermal, hydropower, wind, solar, biomass and photovoltaic) in expanding generation increases from 10.2% in the traditional model to 13.5% in the proposed model over the planning horizon. Also, to incorporate technological learning in the supply agent behaviour leads to earlier involving of renewable technologies in the optimal plan. This increased share of the renewable technology agents is reasonable due to their decreasing investment cost and capability of cooperation in network reserve supply which leads to a high utilization factor.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors’ knowledge, so far there hasn’t been any agent-based GEP paying attention to this integrated approach. The main contribution of this paper is to introduce a multi-agent based modelling for long-term GEP and undertakes to show how incorporating technological learning issues in supply agents behaviour modelling influence on renewable technology share in the optimal mix of technologies. A case study of the electric power system of Iran is used to illustrate the usefulness of the proposed planning approach and also to demonstrate its efficiency.